this presidential election is going to be mayhem… i can see it already… at least 3 of the following are sure to happen:

• osama bin laden conveniently gets captured
• a random non-al qaeda terrorist attack happens—like the antrax scare—causing many americans to stay home with their duct tape
• a large-scale military failure happens in iraq
• neither candidate gets the necessary 270 electoral votes, or there is a tie, in which case dennis hastert, the speaker becomes acting president. note: there’s nothing preventing him from holding the position for the full four-year term.
• tied electoral college scenario one: democrats regain control of the senate and elect john edwards as president bush’s vice-prez
• tied electoral college scenario two: the senate is split 50-50 and dick cheney casts the deciding vote, using it to give himself another four years.
• president bush becomes the first candidate to win twice with a minority of the popular vote, the majority of the population becomes violent.
• something wonky happens within the antiquated electoral college system—someone defects [faithless defector], or gets disqualified as a delegate
• electronic voting machines get hacked, a re-vote occurs
• colorado’s move to proportionally distribute their electoral votes gets overturned in the supreme court
• recounts happen in several swing counties in several swing states
• and lastly [touch wood] there’s an al qaeda attack, disrupting elections and throwing american society and government into chaos

although i [quite happily] live in the united kingdom, i am incredibly concerned about the future of america. someday i may wish to move back, and, well, we all know that another four-years of homophobic bigoted environmentally-evil unworldly republican government in the usa will have trickle-down effects across the globe.

i’ve been absolutely glued to this website: electoral-vote.com. it uses the latest polling data, state-by-state, to map out electoral votes. as a statisician myself, i wholeheartedly agree with the site’s logic and arithmetic. unfortunately, most polling is inaccurate [no mobile phone users are polled, no recently-registered voters are polled, there's inevitable error and bias].

perhaps more unfortunate is how drastically the electoral vote totals have been flip-flopping back and forth. i think there’s hope yet, but you never know what might happen in america, land of lawsuits. but still, it’s an interesting look at how america is so horribly divided. regardless the outcome of this election, half of americans will feel alienated and hateful and sore. for a long long time.

get off your ass at vote, dammit!